SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA – NOVEMBER 20: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors dribbling the ball while being guarded by Dillon Brooks #9 of the Houston Rockets during the fourth quarter of an NBA basketball game at Chase Center on November 20, 2023 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
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The Houston Rockets will likely surpass the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference hierarchy at some point this decade. Ime Udoka’s group could very well sniff the heights of the Finals as Golden State did an astounding six times from 2015-22. But neither dream for Houston fans will come to fruition this season.
As the regular season draws to a close, the Rockets’ chances of a play-in berth are increasingly slim.
The math paints a pretty clear picture of the challenge facing Houston with just seven games left in the regular season. Golden State enters Wednesday at 41–34 holding a three-game lead on the Rockets for the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference (the final play-in slot). That lead is effectively four games given Golden State holds the tiebreaker over Houston. Time isn’t on Houston’s side. The Rockets would still need a 4–3 closing stretch to reach the playoffs if the Warriors lost their next seven games. Say Golden State limps to a more reasonable 2–5 record. Houston would then need to rip off seven straight wins.
Don’t love the scenario game? Just remember this: the Warriors’ magic number for a play-in spot is four. Any combination of four Golden State wins or Houston losses between now and April 14, and the Rockets’ season is effectively over.
Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors and Draymond Green #23 of the Golden State Warriors talk during a timeout in the fourth quarter of the game against the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center on November 20, 2022 in Houston, Texas.
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Houston’s playoff bid was in far greater shape before this weekend. Recent nights moved the postseason odds from slim to close to none. Luka Dončić diced the Rockets to the tune of 47 points in a Mavericks win at Toyota Center on Sunday. Houston fought back admirably in Minnesota on Tuesday, but couldn’t quite push past Anthony Edwards and company. Help didn’t arrive via Houston’s competition either. The Warriors are finding their groove at the right time, riding a five-game winning streak entering Wednesday.
Steph Curry may be the only Golden State star still near his peak. But Houstonians should heed Rudy Tomjanovich’s wise words weeks ago: “Never underestimate the heart of a champion.”
The Rockets now return home after a bitter loss in Minnesota, with the franchise’s most consequential game since 2020 now on tap for Thursday evening. Curry, Draymond Green and the Warriors come to Toyota Center on Thursday night, with a win effectively necessary for the Rockets to keep their postseason dream alive. Tip-off from Toyota Center is slated for 7 p.m. CT.